"An invasion of armies can be resisted but not an idea whose time has come" Victor Hugo
I. ON THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION
In this century, technology will concentrate on the brain, whose heavenly potential, is yet to be realized.
The information revolution will lead us through a knowledge revolution to the wisdom revolution.
Intelligent machines and intelligent programs will enhance the virtual reality - a form of being there.
In this century we will not just have intelligent information but also more intelligent machines.
E-Business will become the virtual market place in 20 years.
The internet plumbing years are over - The internet intelligent years are ahead.
Intelligent machines will be talking to each other more than people talking to people.
Machines will be activated by word, by handwriting - the mouse will be killed.
Reading your book on your pocket PC - with detachable screens - will become the norm.
The mobile internet - PC, pocket PC, mobile phone together- will prevail.
Every worker will have to be a knowledge worker.
Every year there will be more progress than in the previous ten years.
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Everything will be compatible anytime, anyplace, any machine.
Intelligent scanners that read and store and help you search anything in the text will become more interactive.
Connectivity will be through any electrically connected device, at practically no cost, or though broadband wireless internet.
We will have intelligent mobile phones.
Today's websites are static (picture like); they will become self-activating and will tell you what you need to know.
Don't say that this is not human. Were we more human as cave men when we did not have machines?
Arabic, as well as other major languages will become internet access language. We are working on this through our leadership of the Multilingual Internet Names Consortium (MINC).
Internet literacy must become universal within the Arab world. Our IT Skills Award program with the University of Cambridge is being regionally launched for that purpose.
II. WHERE IS THIS TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION TAKING US?
Let us first agree how to define technology. To me, technology is everything that has been invented since the creation of humanity. That includes a walking stick, lipstick, dynamite stick, as well as Sony's memory stick.
Let us also agree that technology does not go backward. Once it is there it stays and can only go forward. But now, at the beginning of the millennium, this evolution is turning into a revolution, which will take us into a new world, borderless, with countless choices and in a way carrying us from the national democratic systems to a single "global democracy" system.
The speed of the transition is unlike anything before; e.g. humanity this year used more computing power than all previous years combined. Looking ahead, we should expect in 20 years zero cost computing and zero cost telecoms, one planet, one network: the INFOSPHERE. Information, information, information; we will live in an endless ocean of information.
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Semi-conductors will become obsolete and devices will be built at the automatic level. Commerce, health, education, entertainment, government and all other services will go online— just as books, films, music, video etc.
Technology as we defined it will be converted into the new digital format. Many of us may not like this "brave new world." Such a debate is as hypothetical as whether you like or do not like collecting old radios, stamps or cars. The future is already here. You should gear yourselves soon for a single digital device for all media and communication. You will soon have an ID card that can be used all over the world for all purposes.
Intelligent IT will be there: idiot-proof, voice-commanded, visually intensive, user-friendly and object-oriented. IT will do most of our work for us and will be friendlier than many of us. You should expect digital everything. We are talking about a price/performance improvement one million fold in 20 years! You better believe it. Only look back and see how far we have reached in 20 years. Technology is not simply additive; it is more often exponential. An invention usually triggers other inventions.
Digital Intellectual Property will be the main business and trade, IP accounts today for 20% of world trade, but should account for at least 50% of it by the middle of this century.
That is all beautiful. Yet that is not all. The INFOSPHERE we are heading towards invokes the inherent risk of being the sphere of the developed, the few. Unless we can bridge the technological gap between the 20% and the 80% of the global population, we will be heading towards an ugly world with ugly consequences.
III- THE KNOWLEDGE REVOLUTION= THE LANGUAGE EVOLUTION
Sign language (hieroglyphics)—a language which we can read, write and understand, but cannot speak.
Alphabet (alef baata)—a language which we can read, write, understand and speak.
Digital language (strings of zeros and ones, INVENTED BY ARABS)—a language we can neither read nor write nor speak nor understand
The future language is Code of Life:
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o Bio-informatics, Bio-computing
o Biology & Digital Technology
o A string of billions of the letters A,T,C,G
The next language divide is the bio-informatics divide.
Human progress is a chain of language divides.
The simple capture of the human language in an alphabet remains one of, if not the greatest challenges to global human development. The goal of providing basic literacy and education to all the world’s people is still the most basic development challenge.
The dominant language…and economic driver…of this century is going to be GENETICS. Those who remain illiterate in this language won’t understand the force making the single biggest difference in their lives.
Your future, that of your children, and that of your country depends on understanding the global economy driven by technology. Understanding code, particularly genetic code, is today’s most powerful technology.
As of February 12, 2001, anyone with access to the internet could suddenly look at a new atlas (genetic map).
We all know what the date October 12, 1492 means…but Columbus never knew, and we still argue today over just where he landed…it took decades to realize how a new world map (with the USA on it) would end up changing the balance of power among all countries.
IV. THE KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY
Science and technology allow people to multiply their productivity much faster than those who do not have the same knowledge or instruments.
The rules of an economy based on knowledge and networks are very different from those of a manufacturing-based economy.
In the old economy if something was scarce, it was valuable. Those who controlled the mines, owned the exclusive rights to a
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product, or had the only copy of something could become very wealthy.
As new disciplines and technologies emerge, you don’t win the game by producing knowledge - you also have to protect it, and apply it.
Which is why patents are a good barometer of creativity, tenacity, ability to articulate an idea and capacity to build knowledge.
If you cannot create knowledge and patents, it is impossible to launch new high-tech companies. As the old companies become uncompetitive, there is nothing to replace them.
Today, if you do not export knowledge, you do not get rich.
When you are trying to spread and sell knowledge, keeping something “exclusive” and “rare” often leads to a loss of value. What matters most is that the purchaser becomes part of a network and that the network keeps growing.
The first purchaser of a telephone, or a fax machine, had a useless product. He could not communicate with anyone. Each additional phone or fax sold makes the network more valuable. So each purchaser becomes a salesman - “don’t you have a fax? You should get one.”
Whether the most radical visions of the future will be realized or not, there are definitely important developments in the management of knowledge related to bioinformatics.
Technology trends in bioinformatics, while distinct, will continue to see their boundaries blurred and will converge as progress continues.
Computers will become more human and humans will become more computerized.
Unfortunately, it is not only scientific advances which are converging; so too are the challenges we face. Who will benefit from these advances?
Millions of people are currently deprived of the most basic medical care. What good are subcutaneous medical tracking devices to people who haven’t been immunized, or who fail to
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receive basic treatment of common but serious ailments such as malaria?
Meanwhile, the rise in importance of digital code of the communication age, has opened up a Digital Divide that presses on us with the urgency to bridge this dividing chasm as a way to empower the powerless and provide opportunities to those that have none.
But we have found that the most basic impediment to empowerment is basic illiteracy. Thus we continue to face a challenge that has been with humanity for thousands of years, since the dawn of civilization, and which has not yet been met.
V. ON ICT FOR PEACE AND SECURITY
Technology, ICT, can contribute substantively and substantially to greater peace and security. We just need to realize that we have not put it towards that objective as a priority. Had the September 11th, 2001 tragedy happened before the UN Global Summit of 2000, I have no doubt that ICT for Security would have been one of the 8 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) making up the 18 targets. As the MDGs stands, it is not clearly so stated.
VI. THE FUTURE IS NOT WHAT IT USED TO BE
The future factory will be run by a man and a dog. The man feeds the dog. The dog makes sure that the man doesn’t touch the machines.